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Depending on who's doing the prophesying, the winter solstice in the year 2012 could usher in a day of celebration — or a day of chaos. December 21, 2012 has been marked as a special day since the time of the Maya, whose calendar first touted it as the end of a great 5,126 year cycle. Now, just a few years before the day of reckoning is upon us, the human race is forced to consider the possibility of an approaching apocalyptic nightmare. Only time will tell whether 2012 will be the end, a new beginning, or just a year like any other.

THEORY: The End of the Maya Calendar Cycle
This is where it all begins. The Maya Long Count calendar comes to the end of a 5,126 year cycle soon—possibly on December 21, 2012. The exact date is debated, as is what will happen when we hit that date. There is no record telling us exactly what the ancient Maya expected to happen when this cycle ended and the next began. But some think they would have been worried about the end of mankind as we know it.

THEORY: Bible Code Prophecy
At least one interpretation of the Bible tells us that in the year 2012, God will destroy Earth. With the help of computers, Israeli mathematicians have discovered a supposed secret code in the Bible's text. Michael Drosnin, author of The Bible Code, also decoded the text based on the mathematicians' work. According to Drosnin's interpretations, comets are due to rain down upon Earth in both 2010 and 2012.

THEORY: Terrence McKenna's Timewave Zero
In the early 1970s, Terence McKenna took a trip to the Amazon rainforest, where he experienced mind-bending drugs. Upon his return, he utilized the I Ching, the ancient Chinese book of divination, to determine a mathematical formula he called "timewave zero." According to his research, this formula predicts that time will form into tighter and tighter spirals until a "final time" is reached. When this happens, the laws of physics as we currently experience them will no longer apply, and the world will suddenly enter a new era with new, unknown laws. Originally set to occur on November 17, 2012, McKenna later moved the date when he determined the occurrence of the next galactic alignment: December 21, 2012.

THEORY: Nostradamus' Prophecies
The infamous seer's writings have been cited as predicting such historical events as the reign of Napoleon, the tyranny of Hitler, both World Wars, and September 11th. His writings also contain a number of end of the world prophecies which have yet to occur. His written quatrains prophesize everything from earthquakes and rampant disease to the coming of an antichrist and the onset of World War III. While not specifically pinpointed to the year 2012, many believe that Nostradamus' prophecies will coincide with the end of the Maya calendar.

THEORY: Rogue Planet Collision
Author Zecharia Sitchin wrote of a 5,000-year-old tale of planet Nibiru, home to a race of beings called the Annunaki, orbiting the sun beyond Pluto. Although dismissed by many as a myth, some believe that because of an unusual orbit, Nibiru is set to disrupt Earth in 2012. Recent science has indeed discovered a planetary body that is slightly larger than Pluto and three times farther from the sun, named Eris. Despite assurances from NASA that Eris is not headed anywhere near Earth, followers of Sitchin’s ideas fear that Eris is indeed Nibiru and will follow a rogue orbit, coming close enough to the solar system that its gravitational pull could dramatically alter the face of the Earth, wreaking unprecedented havoc on our gravity and electromagnetic fields.

THEORY: Galactic Alignment
In the galactic alignment, the winter solstice sun will line up perfectly with the galactic equator, an invisible line that denotes the center of the Milky Way galaxy. According to researcher John Major Jenkins, this precise alignment only occurs once every 26,000 years—and the next one is scheduled to take place by 2016. Jenkins asserts that rather than doomsday, the galactic alignment will bring about a shift in the human psyche toward a more conscious state.

THEORY: Solar Storms on Earth
Approximately every 11 years, the number of sunspots on our sun peaks at what we call a solar maximum. These sunspots, giant magnetic storms which appear as dark splotches on the sun's surface, release solar flares that vary in intensity. The next solar maximum is due to occur in 2012, and if powerful solar flares manage to penetrate Earth's weakening magnetic shield, damaging radiation could wreak havoc on the health on humankind.

THEORY: Pole Shift Hypotheses
Due to a variety of environmental or man-made factors, the north and south poles of Earth are not entirely static. There are many theories as to why this is, and what this means. The occurrence of a pole shift, where the poles would move dramatically, could cause the Earth's crust to move over the mantle and core—like an orange skin floating around above the pulpy fruit. This could result in major tsunamis, dramatic earthquakes and volcanoes, and intense climate change as the continents are pushed halfway across the globe from their current locations. A pole shift of this magnitude was predicted by psychic Edgar Cayce in 1934, who said it would start happening in the early 21st century.

Using the Mayan Prophecy as an excuse to create new and explosive ways in which our planet may be destroyed, 20 12 2012 doomsayers use the geomagnetic shift theory as if it is set in stone. Simply because scientists have said that it might happen within the next millennium appears to be proof enough that it will happen in four years time. Alas, although this theory has some scientific backing, there is no way that anyone can predict when geomagnetic reversal might happen to the nearest day or to the nearest million years…

Firstly, let’s differentiate between geomagnetic reversal and polar shift. Geomagnetic reversal is the change in the magnetic field of the Earth, where the magnetic north pole shifts to the South Polar Region and the south magnetic pole shifts to the North Polar Region. Once this process is complete, our compasses would point toward Antarctica, rather than northern Canada. Polar shift is considered to be a less likely event that occurs a few times in the evolutionary timescale of the Solar System. There are a couple of examples of planets that have suffered a catastrophic polar shift, including Venus (which rotates in an opposite direction to all the other planets, therefore it was flipped upside down by some huge event, such as a planetary collision) and Uranus (which rotates on its side, having been knocked off-axis by an impact, or some gravitational effect caused by Jupiter and Saturn). Many authors (including the doomsayers themselves) often cite both geomagnetic reversal and polar shift as being one of the same thing. This isn’t the case.

This magnetic field passes through the core to the crust and pushes into space as the Earth’s magnetosphere, a protective bubble constantly being buffeted by the solar wind. As the solar wind particles are usually charged, the Earth’s powerful magnetosphere deflects the particles, only allowing them into the polar cusp regions where the polar magnetic fieldlines become “open.” The regions at which these energetic particles are allowed to enter glow as aurorae.

Usually this situation can last for aeons (a stable magnetic field threaded through the North and South Polar Regions), but occasionally, the magnetic field is known to reverse and alter in strength. Why is this?

Again, we simply do not know. We do know that this magnetic pole flip-flop has occurred many times in the last few million years, the last occurred 780,000 years ago according to ferromagnetic sediment. A few scaremongering articles have said geomagnetic reversal occurs with “clockwork regularity” – this is simply not true. As can be seen from the diagram (left), magnetic reversal has occurred fairly chaotically in the last 160 million years. Long-term data suggests that the longest stable period between magnetic “flips” is nearly 40 million years (during the Cretaceous period over 65 million years BC) and the shortest is a few hundred years.

Some 2012 theories suggest that the Earth’s geomagnetic reversal is connected to the natural 11-year solar cycle. Again, there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this claim. No data has ever been produced suggesting a Sun-Earth magnetic polarity change connection.

So, already this doomsday theory falters in that geomagnetic reversal does not occur with “clockwork regularity,” and it has no connection with solar dynamics. We are not due a magnetic flip as we cannot predict when the next one is going to occur, magnetic reversals occur at seemingly random points in history.

In a previous Universe Today article, we discussed the efforts of geophysicist Dan Lathrop’s attempts to create his own “model Earth,” setting a 26 tonne ball (containing a molten iron analogue, sodium) spinning to see if the internal motion of the fluid could set up a magnetic field. This huge laboratory experiment is testament to the efforts being put into understanding how our Earth even generates a magnetic field, let alone why it randomly reverses.

A minority view (which, again is used by doomsayers to link geomagnetic reversal with Planet X) is that there may be some external influence that causes the reversal. You will often see associated with the Planet X/Nibiru claims that should this mystery object encounter the inner Solar System during its highly elliptical orbit, the magnetic field disturbance could upset the internal dynamics of the Earth (and the Sun, possibly generating that “killer” solar flare I discussed back in June). This theory is a poor attempt to link several doomsday scenarios with a common harbinger of doom (i.e. Planet X). There is no reason to think the strong magnetic field of the Earth can be influenced by any external force, let alone a non-existent planet (or was that a brown dwarf?).

The Earth’s magnetic field is measured to vary in field strength and it is a well known fact that the magnetic field strength is currently experiencing a downward trend. The new research paper, co-authored by geochronologist Brad Singer of the University of Wisconsin, suggests that the weaker magnetic field is critical to geomagnetic reversal. Should the stronger dipole (north-south) field reduce below the magnetic field strength of this usually weaker, distributed field, a geomagnetic reversal is possible.

“The field is not always stable, the convection and the nature of the flow changes, and it can cause the dipole that’s generated to wax and wane in intensity and strength,” Singer said. “When it becomes very weak, it’s less capable of reaching to the surface of the Earth, and what you start to see emerge is this non-axial dipole, the weaker part of the field that’s left over.” Singer’s research group analysed samples of ancient lava from volcanoes in Tahiti and Germany between 500,000 and 700,000 years ago. By looking at an iron-rich mineral called magnetite in the lava, the researchers were able to deduce the direction of the magnetic field.

The spin of the electrons in the mineral is governed by the dominant magnetic field. During times of strong dipolar field, these electrons pointed toward the magnetic North Pole. During times of weak dipolar field, the electrons pointed to wherever the dominant field was, in this case the distributed magnetic field. They think that when the weakened dipolar field drops below a certain threshold, the distributed field pulls the dipolar field off-axis, causing a geomagnetic shift.

“The magnetic field is one of the most fundamental features of the Earth,” Singer said. “But it’s still one of the biggest enigmas in science. Why [the flip] happens is something people have been chasing for more than a hundred years.”

The positions of the magnetic poles are also known to be wondering over Arctic and Antarctic locations. Take the magnetic north pole for example (pictured left); it has accelerated north over the Canadian plains from 10 km per year in the 20th Century to 40 km per year more recently. It is thought that if the point of magnetic north continues this trend, it will exit North America and enter Siberia in a few decades time. This is not a new phenomenon however. Ever since James Ross’ discovery of the location of the north magnetic pole for the first time in 1831, it’s location has meandered hundreds of miles (even though today’s measurements show some acceleration).

Geomagnetic reversal is an engrossing area of geophysical research that will continue to occupy physicists and geologists for many years to come. Although the dynamics behind this event are not fully understood, there is absolutely no scientific evidence supporting the claim that there could be a geomagnetic reversal around the time of December 21st, 2012.

Besides, the effects of such a reversal have been totally over-hyped. Should we experience geomagnetic reversal in our lifetimes (which we probably won’t), it is unlikely that we’ll be cooked alive by the Solar Wind, or be wiped out by cosmic rays. It is unlikely that we’ll suffer any mass extinction event (after all, early man, homo erectus, lived through the last geomagnetic shift, apparently with ease). We’ll most likely experience aurorae at all latitudes whilst the dipolar magnetic field settles down to its new, reversed state, and there might be a small increase in energetic particles from space (remember, just because the magnetosphere is weakened, doesn’t mean we wont have magnetic protection), but we’ll still be (largely) protected by our thick atmosphere.

In conclusion:

Once again, we find another 2012 doomsday scenario to be flawed in so many ways. There is no doubt that geomagnetic reversal will happen in the future for Earth, but we’re talking about time scales anything from an optimistic (and unlikely) 500 years to millions of years, certainly not in the coming four years…

Out-of-control mini self-replicating robots would consume all of the matter on Earth in their endless quest to clone themselves. Not an actual "goo," the tiny nano-robots would move across the planet, replicating infinitely until they run out of raw matter to use. The Earth would be completely overtaken by these machines, and organic life would be no more.

The CERN Large Hadron Collider in France, the largest and most advanced machine on the planet, would accidentally create a black hole on Earth. A giant particle accelerator used by physicists to study the universe's smallest known particles, it works by crashing beams of them together at high speeds, recreating Big Bang conditions. While the chances of this happening are slim, if the LHC were to accidentally create a black hole and it grew out of control, first the CERN facility, then the countries of France and Switzerland, and eventually the Earth itself would be sucked into its vacant depths.

An asteroid as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs would obliterate the human race. We are, in fact, overdue for another large asteroid collision here on Earth. If it hit, humans, as the dominant life form, would be in danger of immediate extinction—the asteroid would immediately vaporize all living things for miles around and send waves of destruction around the world.

Minor oddities like snow in June and shorts in January would give way to floods overtaking coastal cities, unending droughts, extreme hurricanes, melted glaciers, and acidic oceans. Quickened by pollution and the human race's ever-expanding carbon footprint, Earth's ability to support thriving life would diminish more and more quickly, until finally it would be uninhabitable.

There would be no food. No water. No resources to go around. The Earth's population has more than doubled in the past 50 years. If it continues to grow and becomes too much to control, sanitation would be more and more difficult to accomplish and people would live in squalor. Disease, starvation, and dehydration would claim the lives of the weak and only the strong would survive, attempting to continue the reign of the human race on planet Earth.

Tensions in the world would continue to grow, and war would become more and more sophisticated. There are over 20,000 nuclear weapons in the world today. If we experienced World War III, we would all be in danger of a global nuclear holocaust. When the bombs did drop, nuclear fallout in the form of deadly radiation and electromagnetic pulses would have immediate and lasting effects on humanity—and if enough of them were deployed, life would no longer be possible in the nuclear wasteland.

A natural spread of a new disease—or biological warfare utilizing existing ones—would devastate the world's population, as healthy humans would be decimated by lethal illness. We've seen it before: plague killed as much as one-third of Europe's population in the 14th century, and the Spanish Flu of the late 1910s is believed to have ended more lives than World War I. Even more frightening, it is now technologically possible to equip missiles and bombs with diseases like smallpox, against which much of the world is no longer immune.

The 30 percent of the world's food that relies on bee activity would gradually disappear, causing food shortages and an inevitable struggle for survival. This is not as far-fetched as it may seem. Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) is an actual syndrome in which all of a colony's worker bees mysteriously die off, leaving a lone queen wandering around the hive. In the winter of 2008, 36 percent of the commercial beehives in the U.S. succumbed to CCD, the direct cause is unknown, and there is no known cure.